Iran says Trump can not bring oil prices down by 'bullying'

18 October, 2018, 06:33 | Author: Sally Reid
  • Oil prices rise on Saudi tensions; demand outlook drags

Oil prices rose in cautious trade on Tuesday as expectations of higher US shale output and inventories vied with worries that crude supply from the Middle East could be disrupted by looming USA sanctions on Iran and growing tensions with top producer Saudi Arabia.

Brent crude LCOc1 was up 15 cents at $81.56 a barrel by 0735 GMT, after gaining $1.15 in the previous three sessions.

Reiterating India's stand, Pradhan told reporters here on the sidelines of the 3rd India Energy Forum that the current surge in global crude oil prices was more a result of the market sentiments being hit by geo-political factors which includes Iran and said there were no issues of availability.

Wayne Gordon, executive director for commodities and FX at UBS Global Wealth Management, told CNBC that the market is moving into unchartered territory because any oil production from Saudi Arabia above 11 million bpd (which is widely viewed as necessary to offset Iranian losses due to the USA sanctions) is "largely untested", even though he believes capacity globally "will start to ramp up next year".

"Numbers from the American Petroleum Institute surprised the market yesterday, with USA crude oil inventories declining by 2.13 million barrels over the last week, compared to expectations of a stock build", said ING commodities strategist Warren Patterson. Iran is its third-largest supplier after Iraq and Saudi Arabia and meets about 10 per cent of total needs. But WTI prices could fall in the back half of the week, weighed by an increase in USA crude inventories, the note said. U.S.

"As much as the Saudis may increase production, we're still going to see accumulated losses and that will put oil on a bullish footing", Mr. Tchilinguirian said.

It's not yet clear to what extent, if any, China will curb shipments of Iranian crude due to USA sanctions.

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The secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries last week said that the group saw the oil market as well supplied and that it was wary of creating a glut next year.

Earlier last week, Trump said during an interview that he will impose severe punishment if Saudi Arabia is confirmed to be behind Khashoggi's alleged death. Electric vehicles, he pointed out, are in the passenger vehicle segment, which accounts for only a quarter of oil demand.

"And then next year, we start the entire merry-go-round again, and I think gas prices and crude oil prices will be very similar to where they've been in the last six weeks", Kloza said.

Balancing the US data were reports that Iranian exports of crude oil may be falling faster than expected ahead of new USA sanctions on Tehran from November 4.

Gasoline stocks dropped by 2m barrels the EIA data also showed.

Tom Kloza, longtime oil analyst at the Oil Information Service said the possible effect of the controversy on oil prices is on "everyone's radar" right now.

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